NBA Embraces the CFTC on Prediction Markets as the NFL Fights It in Court
In brief
- The CFTC and NBA signed a memorandum of understanding to protect the integrity of professional basketball in prediction markets, agreeing to share information and flag abuses like insider trading and fraud.
- The NBA joins MLB and NHL in partnering with the regulator.
- It lands amid a federal-vs-state jurisdiction fight—the CFTC is defining event contracts as “swaps,” the NFL is battling Kalshi at the Supreme Court and has balked at signing on.
The NBA has struck a deal with the top U.S. derivatives regulator to help police prediction markets, becoming the latest major sports league to formalize an integrity partnership as betting on games moves onto federally regulated platforms.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Monday it signed a memorandum of understanding with the basketball league to protect the integrity of professional basketball in prediction markets.
Under the agreement, the two will share information and communicate regularly on integrity matters while working to keep the markets fair and transparent.
“The NBA joins the MLB and NHL in taking a responsible step toward protecting sports integrity and market participants from abuses in prediction markets like insider trading and fraud,” CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said in a statement, thanking Commissioner Adam Silver for prioritizing “the integrity of professional basketball and America’s financial markets.”
The pact reflects how quickly sports-outcome betting has migrated to CFTC-regulated venues like Kalshi and Polymarket, which let users trade “event contracts” on real-world outcomes, including who wins a given game.
That shift has raised integrity concerns familiar to the gambling world, chiefly the risk that insiders could trade on nonpublic information. The league-regulator MOUs are meant to build a channel for flagging suspicious activity, following the NHL’s move to become the first major league to license its trademarks to a prediction market and MLB’s integrity agreement tied to a Polymarket deal.
→The NBA is a pointed addition, given the league is still reeling from one of the biggest betting scandals in recent memory. An October 2025 FBI operation led to the arrest of Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier and a coach over alleged involvement in gambling schemes, including one centered on manipulating game outcomes to influence bets. The case put a spotlight on exactly the kind of insider misconduct these partnerships are meant to catch, making the NBA’s cooperation with the CFTC especially resonant.
The partnership also lands amid a fierce jurisdictional fight over whether these markets fall under federal or state authority.
The CFTC recently moved to define event contracts as “swaps” squarely within its remit while excluding casino-style gambling, and a court battle pitting the NFL against Kalshi has drawn the Supreme Court’s attention. Notably, the NFL has so far balked at signing on, making the NBA’s cooperation a contrast among the major leagues.
The stakes are only growing. Analysts at Bernstein have projected prediction markets could generate billions in revenue by the end of the decade, and new entrants keep arriving, with Blockchain.com among the latest to seek CFTC approval to offer event contracts.
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